The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) latest order on unsecured loans is set to hit the banking sector's growth in the near-term, cautioned analysts, as they see banks slowing down on aggressive retail lending. Besides, cost of funds for non-banking finance companies (NBFC) is expected to inch up as banks will pass on higher capital charge to NBFCs. "We believe the fallout of the RBI action will be mainly on growth, given the rising dependence on unsecured retail loans and lending to NBFCs for growth.
Investors' wealth soared by Rs 10.58 lakh crore in three days of the market rally, where the BSE benchmark jumped over 2 per cent, and hit an all-time high on Monday. Extending its winning momentum to the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 363.20 points or 0.49 per cent to settle at 74,014.55. During the day, it zoomed 603.27 points or 0.81 per cent to hit its record high of 74,254.62.
Titan was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by HDFC, Nestle India, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement and Bharti Airtel. On the other hand, Bajaj Auto, Tata Steel and NTPC were the laggards.
The proposal to merge the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City) units of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and BSE has reached an advanced stage, and both bourses could file an application before the National Company Law Tribunal as early as this month, according to a top regulatory official. Sources indicate that the merger proposal has received approval from their respective boards. Both the NSE and BSE are arch rivals when it comes to onshore trading.
'We see mid-and small-caps as a real pot of gold.' 'From a 10-15 years perspective, mid-and small-cap are likely to outperform the larger index, as they have done in the past.'
Brokerages expect India Inc to report an upturn in earnings for the March quarter of 2022-23, after a relatively muted showing in the previous two quarters. This growth is expected to be led by banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies, FMCG firms, and automobile makers. The combined net profit of the Nifty50 companies (excluding Adani Enterprises) is expected to have grown 15.6 per cent to Rs 1.77 trillion in Q4FY23, from Rs 1.53 trillion a year ago.
Equity markets would take cues from domestic inflation data announcement, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Tuesday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'. "As we enter a truncated week with Muhurat trading on Sunday, global cues will play a pivotal role in shaping the market direction.
Investors turned cautious weighing weak GDP numbers and continued drop in automobile sales, bringing banking and auto sector stocks under pressure.
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
The BSE Sensex slumped 456 points on Wednesday, tracking losses in index majors Reliance Industries, Infosys and ICICI Bank as market participants continued to book profits at high levels.
Among the Sensex firms, Wipro jumped over 6 per cent, the most among the frontline companies. HCL Technologies, Tata Motors, Maruti, Tata Steel, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro and JSW Steel were the other major winners. State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank were among the laggards.
Sensex rose 5.8% this year, against a 3.2% rise in Nifty; Axis Bank inclusion may blunt Sensex edge
So far in 2017, the Nifty has gone up by 22.4 per cent.
Corporate India's net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) dipped in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) -- after rebounding sharply in FY22 -- amid a decline in global commodity prices. Top 500 companies' combined net profit stood at 4.1 per cent of the GDP for FY23, down from 4.3 per cent in the previous financial year when it had gone up from just 3.5 per cent in FY21. "The year-on-year (YoY) decline was led by global commodities, which contributed adversely to the ratio, while the financial sector contributed positively.
Selling in index heavyweights, including Infosys, TCS, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries, dragged the benchmark indices into the negative for the second straight session, analysts said. Among the Sensex shares, Asian Paints fell the most by 3.9 per cent as analysts expressed concerns over rising competition in the domestic paints market following the entry of Aditya Birla group company Grasim Industries into the paints segment. IT shares Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra continued to slide amid inflation concerns in the US market.
The fees charged by investment banks to manage initial public offerings (IPOs) have increased to an average 3.23 per cent of the issue size this calendar year, the highest since 2020. The average fee is up 8 per cent compared to last year, when it stood at 2.99 per cent. The investment banking fees have increased as the average IPO size has shrunk this year.
Active largecap funds, which have the toughest job in terms of outperforming the benchmark, did better in 2023 as their bets in the mid and smallcap stocks paid off.
'.. if you do not want to take the asset allocation call.'' 'This category of funds can offer optimum risk-adjusted returns.'
Riding on a stock market boom since 2009, India Inc's chief executives have been able to salvage a lot of lost pride in their second innings.
While the corporate sector has benefited from massive capital expenditure, leading to sky-rocketing stock prices, investors would do well to keep an eye on the macroeconomic picture and government finances, not just corporate profits, for signs of trouble, alerts Debashis Basu.
The bulk of an investor's portfolio should be in shorter-duration funds of up to one year portfolio duration.
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
After a short-term blip, mutual funds (MFs) are back to adding new systematic investment plan (SIP) investors at a record high pace, which was seen during the financial year 2021-22 (FY22). During the first six months (H1) of this financial year (FY24), MFs have added a net 77 million SIP accounts compared to 56 million during the same period of FY23. The net additions this year are a tad higher than the 76.5 million additions in H1 of FY22.
Nifty could fall to 9,500 levels; not a good time to bottom fish, say experts
'No human bias is involved as happens in active funds.'
After a sharp rally in the equities market this year, investors could be better off rotating some funds towards the debt market. Experts believe several tailwinds could spur bond market returns over the next 12-18 months. These include India's robust macroeconomics, declining inflation, and the imminent passive flows of close to Rs 2.5 trillion on account of domestic sovereign bonds getting included in the JP Morgan global indices.
Market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies jumped to an all-time high of over Rs 280 lakh crore on Monday as benchmark indices bounced back after taking a breather in the previous trade. The 30-share BSE benchmark gained 85.88 points or 0.14 per cent to settle at 61,308.91. During the day, it jumped 162.45 points to 61,385.48.
At a time when investors are preferring higher-risk investment products like thematic and small-cap mutual fund (MF) schemes, some fund houses are exploring the possibility of going further down the market-capitalisation (m-cap) ladder to unearth newer investment opportunities. HDFC MF had filed papers with the capital markets regulator - the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - earlier this year for an active micro-cap scheme. Some more fund houses are keen on launching such schemes, say industry observers.
On BSE, 1,469 shares fell and 1,200 shares rose. A total of 190 shares were unchanged.
Bajaj Finserv was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, soaring around 8 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank and SBI.
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
Among the Sensex firms, Power Grid, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, ITC, Bharti Airtel, Nestle, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries, Infosys and HDFC Bank were the major gainers.
Disappointing quarterly earnings numbers and revenue forecast from IT services company Wipro also weighed on investor sentiments. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 247.78 points or 0.38 per cent to settle at 65,629.24 points. During the day, it plunged 533.52 points or 0.80 per cent to 65,343.50 points.
SBI was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 4 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, ONGC, ITC, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Bank and HDFC Bank.
The rally in PSBs, analysts feel, was more a knee-jerk reaction to the development, and the actual benefits will start to accrue once the addition takes place in 2024. "The actual benefit for banks from the inclusion in JP Morgan's EM Index will accrue from June 2024 onwards. "Until then, the larger fundamentals of the market will dictate the moves. "Once the initial euphoria subsides, bond markets will look to global cues which may trigger fresh selling," said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Mutual funds (MFs) are betting on a turnaround in the healthcare sector to boost returns but are divided on the prospects of the information technology (IT) sector amid uncertain growth outlook. At the end of June, all of the top 20 fund houses were overweight on the healthcare sector vis--vis the sector's presence in the BSE 200 index, shows a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS). In the case of the IT sector, only six of the 20 fund houses had overweight positions.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive
'In the next one-and-a-half, two months you'll get decent amount of opportunities in the mid-cap and small-cap sector at lower levels.'
An analysis of past 20 years' demand cycles done by Edelweiss Securities indicates that the auto sector is currently in the middle of a down cycle. Volume recovery, they say, is unlikely to be as sharp as in the past, unless there is strong fiscal support.
The recent price correction in broader markets has hit cement companies hard. So far in the current month, smallcap firms like Visaka Industries, Andhra Cements NCL Industries, Sahyadri Industries, and KCP have lost 19.7 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.5 per cent, and 11.5 per cent, respectively. On the contrary, largecap companies, while registering losses for the month, have seen a softer blow.
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